Our approach
From technical possibility
to durable advantage.
We connect an understanding of emerging capabilities with an assessment of the businesses best positioned to develop them, bring them to market and create enduring value.
01Understand the advance
What becomes possible?
We begin with the underlying capability: what has changed, why it matters and how much of the promise is supported by evidence. We consider where a company's contribution fits within the broader technological landscape.
- Technical significance
- Does the advance unlock a new capability, remove a meaningful constraint or improve performance and cost in a consequential way?
- Evidence of progress
- What has been demonstrated? What is repeatable, and which important claims still depend on future execution?
02Examine the transition
What enables adoption?
We investigate how a technical advance could become a product or capability that customers use. The path to scale reveals which businesses can turn possibility into practical progress, and where execution may be difficult.
- Commercial adoption
- Who has a compelling reason to adopt? What must improve in cost, reliability, integration or customer experience?
- Dependencies and constraints
- Which resources, partners, infrastructure or capital commitments are needed? What could accelerate or delay progress?
03Assess the business
Where does value accrue?
We seek businesses with a meaningful role in advancing the frontier and a credible path to sustaining that role. Our analysis connects the value a company creates with its ability to retain attractive economics as its market develops.
- Competitive advantage
- What makes the business difficult to replicate or displace? How might that position strengthen or weaken as the technology matures?
- Economics and value capture
- How does the company earn revenue, fund growth and retain value? Who has bargaining power as adoption expands?
Conviction that remains open to evidence.
A company's importance to scientific progress and its attractiveness as an investment are separate judgments. We consider business quality, capital requirements, timing and valuation where information is available.
Our views are built around explicit assumptions, the risks that could undermine them and the milestones that would strengthen or weaken the thesis.